GBP/USD Price Analysis and Forecast: Rising Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Weigh on the Pound

The xm账户平台GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating near yesterday's low, trading around 1.3466. This level is slightly above the nearly two-week low recorded the day before. Spot prices remain under pressure and appear vulnerable to further decline after pulling back from the psychological level of 1.3600, which marked a more than two-month high, amid a strengthening U.S. dollar.Despite the temporary extension of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, investor sentiment remains negative due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, driven by a lack of progress in peace negotiations caused by the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Moreover, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reduces the chances of a stable de-escalation. This may further reinforce the dollar's status as the primary reserve currency and play a key role in limiting gains in GBP/USD.

On the other hand, ongoing disruptions in energy supplies through strategically important waterways are keeping oil prices elevated, which impacts global inflation. This could force major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to adopt a more hawkish stance. These prospects may provide additional support to the dollar and strengthen the bearish outlook for GBP/USD.

Nevertheless, expectations of a Bank of England rate hike have increased following Thursday's UK PMI data, which came in above forecasts. Traders are currently pricing in around 60 basis points of monetary tightening by the end of 2026 and a 70% probability of a rate hike in June. This is preventing market participants from taking aggressive bearish positions on the pound and is helping to limit the downside in GBP/USD.

Today's UK economic data, particularly core retail sales, had little impact on the pound. The market's focus has now shifted to geopolitical developments, which could increase volatility in global financial markets and create significant trading opportunities for GBP/USD.

From a technical perspective, the pair has managed to hold above key moving averages, with the 100-day SMA providing support. The next support may come from the confluence of the 50-, 20-, and 200-day SMAs around the psychological level of 1.3400. A failure to hold this area would give bears the upper hand. Resistance is seen around 1.3480, where the 9-day EMA is located. A break above this level would bring the 1.3525–1.3530 level into focus on the way toward the 1.3600 psychological level.

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