Bear cycle not over yet for Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues a kind of upward movement that has been just a correction for two months. This is xm注册入口clearly visible on the daily timeframe (TF). A liquidity pool below remains untouched and the price is likely to revisit it with about a 90% probability. Bitcoin produced a sell signal — the first on the daily TF in several months — at the nearest bearish FVG. Lower timeframes also show signs of a downward reversal.

Although many well?known figures like Cathie Wood and Michael Saylor continue to loudly urge everyone to buy Bitcoin, not all analysts and investors share that view. We have repeatedly noted that the downtrend that began in Q4 last year is not finished and there are no signs of a new uptrend beginning. We also pointed out that after a bull run, Bitcoin usually corrects for at least a year and can lose 70–80% of its value. Michael Terpin, CEO of venture firm Transform Ventures, made the same remarks in a recent interview. In his view, it is unrealistic to expect a rise to $100,000 in 2026. Bitcoin has not yet completed the bear cycle. For a strong rally, it needs massive inflows into ETFs.

Mr. Terpin also said that talk of a sustained uptrend can only begin after the psychological $100,000 level is cleared. We are not suggesting you should wait for $100,000 to start buying — quite the opposite. We plan to wait for a much lower price, then look for the end of the bear trend, search for bullish reversal signs and signals. Recall that on the weekly TF the uptrend is already broken, which means the downtrend may last longer than 12 months.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues forming a full?fledged downtrend with corrective rallies against it. We still expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the three?year uptrend). At present, there are no signs of a trend reversal. But even $57,500 does not look like a final bottom. The only POI right now is the nearby bearish FVG on the daily TF in the $79,300–$81,200 area. The price reacted to that zone; confirmation formed on the hourly TF, and a structure break occurred on the 4?hour TF. Therefore, it makes sense to open short positions in the near term and monitor the formation of bearish patterns. Targets are below $60,000.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily TF, a downtrend and corrective moves against it are still going on. The key sell setup was and remains a bearish order block on the weekly TF. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and long?lasting. After it formed, Ethereum slumped about 65% (roughly $3,200). In the near term, ETH may continue a weak upward correction, but any correction eventually ends. On the 4?hour TF, Ethereum has reacted well to recent FVGs, but moves remain weak and corrective. A sell signal may form on the daily TF at the next FVG. Bitcoin has already produced several sell signals and signs of a trend reversal downward; Ethereum may follow Bitcoin.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.

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